The College Football Playoff is down to its final four, and one of the biggest stages of the season is ready. Ole Miss and Miami will meet in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl with a trip to the national title game hanging in the balance.
Both programs arrive in Arizona after tough, road-tested playoff runs. Ole Miss, the SEC champion at 13-1, knocked out Tulane before stunning Georgia in the quarterfinals. Miami, now 12-2, earned its place by winning at Texas A&M and then muscling past Ohio State.
Kickoff is set for Friday night at State Farm Stadium, where two very different styles are about to collide.
How They Got Here
Ole Miss has leaned on big-play offense and fearless quarterback play. The Rebels survived Georgia thanks to a late surge led by quarterback Trinidad Chambliss, who turned chaos into points when it mattered most.
Miami’s path has looked different. The Hurricanes have played controlled football, trusting a physical defense and a slow-burn offense to wear teams down. It has not always been flashy, but it has worked.
Now, one win away from the championship game, style points no longer matter.
Betting Snapshot (via DraftKings)
- Spread: Miami -3.5
- Moneyline: Miami -166 | Ole Miss +140
- Over/Under: 52.5 points
Miami enters as a slight favorite, mostly due to its defense and playoff experience. Ole Miss backers see value in the Rebels’ ability to score in bursts.
Matchup to Watch: Quarterbacks Under Pressure
This game likely swings on the quarterbacks.
Chambliss has been the most electric player left in the playoff. He has piled up 3,660 passing yards, 520 rushing yards, and 24 total touchdowns. Against Georgia, he threw for 362 yards while escaping pressure all night. That skill will be tested again by a Miami defensive front led by Akheem Mesidor and Rueben Bain Jr.
Ole Miss also needs help from its run game. Kewan Lacy may not break loose often, but steady carries could keep Miami’s pass rush honest.
On the other side, Miami quarterback Carson Beck has been efficient but cautious. He threw for just over 100 yards against Texas A&M and under 140 against Ohio State. Ole Miss has quietly become strong against the run, holding Georgia to 3.4 yards per carry, which could force Beck to throw more than Miami wants.
That is the risk. When Beck has been pushed into high-pressure games, turnovers have followed. Ole Miss will try to speed him up and turn this into a fast game.
What It Comes Down To
Miami wants control. Ole Miss wants chaos.
If the Hurricanes can keep the score low and lean on defense, they are built to grind this out. If the Rebels turn it into a wide-open game, Chambliss has the edge as a playmaker who can flip momentum in seconds.
Prediction
Ole Miss finds just enough offense late and forces Miami out of its comfort zone.
- Final score: Ole Miss 27, Miami 21
Best bet: Ole Miss moneyline
Game Info
- Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. ET
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN App
One team moves on. The other goes home. Friday night decides who gets a shot at college football history.
